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Within the broad range of professions that an industrial design education can lead to, automotive design is something like neurosurgery is to med students: Prestigious, aspirational, even glamorous. Is there any chance that will decline within our lifetime?
In the last entry we looked at how personal poverty in Italy is leading to declining car sales. But according to The Economist, wealthy countries do not have the opposite situation. "In the rich world," they write, "the car's previously inexorable rise is stalling." While there are still millions of Brazilians, Chinese and Indians keen to get their first set of wheels, other nations, say academics, may be reaching an automotive saturation point.
While that point can be debated, there is another fact that cannot: Right now rich economies are filled with older drivers, and in order to sustain that car-buying population, those economies need to keep producing younger drivers. And the past 24 months have seen a rash of articles from seemingly every major paper on how that younger-driver factory may be grinding down. Here's the buzz:
The Wall Street Journal, "No McMansions for Millenials:""[The] estimated 80 million people [comprising] the category known as 'Gen Y'...want to walk everywhere... A whopping 88% want to be in an urban setting..."
Motor Trend, "Why Young People Are Driving Less:"
"In 2009, the 16- to 34-year-old age group took 24-percent-more bike trips than in 2001, even as its population shrank by 2 percent. The same age group walked to more destinations in '09 than in '01, and the distance it traveled by public transit increased 40 percent.
"They also are more interested in saving the planet... though the economy remains the biggest factor. These young non-drivers are weaning themselves from cars, and won't necessarily rush to buy them when the job market improves."
The New York Times, "As Young Lose Interest in Cars, G.M. Turns to MTV for Help:"
"Today Facebook, Twitter and text messaging allow teenagers and 20-somethings to connect without wheels.... Forty-six percent of drivers aged 18 to 24 said they would choose Internet access over owning a car, according to the research firm Gartner.
"...A survey of 3,000 consumers born from 1981 to 2000 [asked] which of 31 brands they preferred. Not one car brand ranked in the top 10, lagging far behind companies like Google and Nike."The Atlantic, "Why Don't Young Americans Buy Cars?"
"We have to face the growing reality that today young people don't seem to be as interested in cars as previous generations," [Toyota USA President Jim] Lentz said. "Many young people care more about buying the latest smart phone or gaming console than getting their driver's license."
Smart Planet, "Generation Y: Why are You Not on the Road?"
"In the UK...the high expense of using a personal vehicle has resulted in a shift of attitudes—it is now a luxury to own a car, rather than an expectation.
"...Gen-Y may be notorious for dodging events that were once seen as rites of passage, but it is not necessarily that they want to—it is that they have had to adapt to a different climate, and alter their expectations accordingly."
To answer our original question: We've witnessed plenty of automotive industry upheavals in our lifetime, and with world economies going the way they are, we'd have to guess the raw number of automotive design positions will shrink. That doesn't mean it will become any less prestigious, of course, as there will always be people who love cars. But it probably does mean that an already-difficult-to-get career in automotive design is going to get a lot more competitive.
Comments
This has been happening for quite a while, and even as an enthusiast, I understand it. There are a variety of forces at work here; first off, cars are a LOT more expensive than they used to be. This is due not only to the cash for clunkers program eliminating a lot of decent used cars, but also the fact that a decent cheap new car's price has skyrocketed from around $10k back in 1995 to around 20k today. Another huge issue is gas prices; they were only $1.19 back around 2001, yet in a decade we are now not even balking when it hits $4/gallon. That's a 400% increase in only ten short years. Now factor in the grossly inflated price of a speeding ticket (back in the 90s there were between $50-75, now they're $120+). All of this adds up, yet nobody is getting paid more. The median income in America hasn't moved in a decade.
Cars really are too much hassle. Gas prices, parking places, cleaning it, registration safety and emissions testing, yearly maintenance, getting parts and tires. If you don't want to put up with the hassle of old cars you have to have the cash available to do all that up keep. I'd rather pay for faster internet at home and a data plan on my smart phone then have a car payment for something that sits in a parking lot all day.
It stands to reason that as the desirability of cars decline, so does the desirability of being a car designer.
I'm definitely one of Gen Y that couldn't care less for a car, and I'd be much more proud to design more sustainable products and services than cars. I'm studying at a university where I do have a very, very good chance of getting into the car industry, but I've chosen to intern with a couple of leading consultancies that really do push sustainable thinking instead.
Rob: I think your criteria for cars has increased. A new Nissan Versa (cheapest car in the US, I believe) starts at $10,990. It's actually a bargain when compared to what we could have bought 10 years ago for $10k.
Another trend: Young people don't like convertibles. I find this trend interesting because the convertible was so aspirational for the first 100 years of motoring and it seems like it may die out in the course of the next 30 years.
Also, in a recent trip to China, I saw almost no convertibles. Sad sad day...
Autoblog: Convertibles are down, but are they on the way out?
http://aol.it/OfEEpM
Autonomous vehicles is going to be the next wave. So cars will still be around, they will just take a different shape. So the need for car designers will only grow because of this new autonomous niche.