posted 10-29-2003 06:56 PM              

I can see a future within 10 years that the manufacturing in Asia has grown so efficient at what it does (raw material sourcing, preparation, part making, assembly, packaging, storage and shipping) that they will hire the designers, or the brands, directly, to design and market their goods to specific markets, retailers and consumers. Much as it is now, but the manufacturers will foot the bills and own a stake or share of the brand, or company, or product. Rather than being paid on a per piece, FOB, or quantity price basis as they are now. In short, Factories will have a greater involvement in the product development process from the beginning, as a client to the designer, rather than being a vendor who supplies a service to the designer. Or even possibly as a patron to the designer, with a stake in the outcome......

so in other words Western ID will become a symbiote to Eastern Manufacturing.....

posted 10-29-2003 09:12 PM              

I have to tell you it's a big stress, the constant networking, trying to get jobs with healthy budgets and interesting work is tough.

Everyday we see products we have designed making millions of dollars and we look at our return and barely see 2% of that revenue. Mainstream Id really is a thankless job, but if you love the profession you can get past it.

But in a long winded way, my two cents worth is thus:

Members of our team are pooling our skills to design and market our own products, not only do we get the joy of design but the rewards our clients have traditionally received.

posted 10-30-2003 12:48 AM              

quote:

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Originally posted by new strategy:
I have been working in a consultancy for five years and have reached the point where i am heavily involved in the marketing and business development side of Id.

I have to tell you it's a big stress, the constant networking, trying to get jobs with healthy budgets and interesting work is tough.

Everyday we see products we have designed making millions of dollars and we look at our return and barely see 2% of that revenue. Mainstream Id really is a thankless job, but if you love the profession you can get past it.

But in a long winded way, my two cents worth is thus:

Members of our team are pooling our skills to design and market our own products, not only do we get the joy of design but the rewards our clients have traditionally received.

We have to start creating our own destiny!

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posted 10-30-2003 01:08 AM              

quote:

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Originally posted by hmmm . . .:
If you're truly thinking about the future of ID, then think beyond Asia. Once corporations are done sucking the life out of that region then they'll move to Africa.

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posted 10-30-2003 08:50 AM              

When I went to school for ID, there was no such thing, but now its the perfect fit for me because it requires the same methods, skillsets and interest: ultimately to create better "experiences" through new products and services regardless of media.

We're in the Information/Entertainment economy now: products aren't as important/central to our life as they once were. At the same time, they're commoditizing: as the number of products approach infinity, their individual value approaches zero.

I don't buy Ozymandias prediction: Factories do not make products, marketers make products. Plus I outsourcers are beginning to hit the ceiling when it comes to talent supply overseas (John Dvorak recently wrote a PC Mag article on this) and like the Japanese auto mfrs, they'll open studios stateside (afterall, colocation means less and less these days.)

posted 10-30-2003 09:19 AM              

What I think will happen, which has happened before in most industrialized nations, is that in time the technological aptitude will increase allowing for a socioeconomic increase in peoples everyday life in the Far East, because of better wages and capitalism trickling into their economic and political systems. Also, because of an abundance of work and laborers, this will spawn a large stabilized middle class that can sustain a growing economy. The Far East is becoming a mirror image of the US 50-100 years ago. The only difference is that they don’t need to import laborers because of an abundant population.

How does this relate to ID? ID is fundamental linked to industry, no industry, no ID. No manufacturing corporations, no ID. I think US corporations will start looking for ID abroad as it begins to evolve and compete at an American level. It is beginning to happen with a lot of Far East OEM suppliers. They offer the physical good that has been designed, engineered, tested, packaged, and is just waiting to be bought and shipped. A lot of companies are taking this easy way out, to get things to market fast without the many overhead costs of in-house product development.

ID in the US will probably evolve to suit more service based companies, instead of industrial companies. ID will probably evolve as a plug-in to firms that have graphic ,web ,exhibit design capabilities along with promotional, marketing and advertising functions. Hardcore ID firms will probably start designing, engineering and selling there own products / inventions, via Far East links (which is already beginning to happen). The other firms that don’t take these routes will begin to dwindle, and eventually will disappear (which is already beginning to happen). The corporate designer will take on a more administrative roll in overseeing Far East design projects.

posted 10-30-2003 10:06 AM              

quote:

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Originally posted by Krush:
So we should all pack up and move to Africa?

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posted 10-30-2003 11:27 AM              

quote:

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Originally posted by hmmm . . .:
If you're truly thinking about the future of ID, then think beyond Asia. Once corporations are done sucking the life out of that region then they'll move to Africa.

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Can you name some specific countries that are stable enough to attract companies to manufacture? Sure, there's lots of "cheap" labor in Africa, but it takes more than that to be where China is now. The Chinese government is investing millions into themselves with things like advanced computer networks which ultimately help streamline business. Additionally China has a MUCH more stable political climate than that of Africa-- corporations arent going to take a risk on manufacturing in a dangerous country.

As for the future of ID firms, I think more firms should push towards different business models. Designing, manufactuing, and then selling designs to their clients is one way. There is more risk taken, but also more control over the end product and ultimately more profit. Plus imagine the shift in company culture when the profits are based on product success instead of man-hours!

posted 10-31-2003 03:11 PM              

1.) ID professionals and firms will start to design/develop solutions and contract the work. Emerging RP techniques will soon make traditional manufacturing nearly obsolete- Many solutions will be manufactured in a facility not unlike current RP facilities- 5 axis CNC, "grown" parts (advanced SLS-SLA), etc. Small runs will insure exclusivity and custom solutions to consumers. Some designs will be hand finished to provide a "crafted" feel. Cheap robotic assembly and big box retail channels will help the process along and make quick turns on models and exclusive design for the masses a reality (look at the footwear/ apparel industry now and cut production quantity and time in half ). Think Roycrofters with computers and the Internet and you will get the idea.

2. I see more technical manufacturing being retained or moving back to the US in ten years as big changes in how a product is made occur. This will happen because Asia will have a serious problem converting its entrenched political elite into capitalistic populists. Most of these new market economies are not democracies and I see a rise of oligarchs in China, Malaysia, and Indo in the wake of immovable political structures. This will have a chilling effect on investment, trade and manufacturing (e.g. Russia). Also, look at this regions monetary collapses over the years (read Paul Krugman). Until a powerful middle class is in place these economies will not be stable. Mexico and Canada may get their NAFTA act together but I doubt it.

3 Manufacturing in other regions. Africa is a long shot as both political and public health issue on the continent will not be resolved in a decade ( even South Africa). However, look to stable (currently) second tier economies to provide what cannot filled by Asia. I see Australia, New Zealand, Poland, India and Brazil as huge winners in international design and manufacturing in the next decade. These are all economies rich in natural resources, human capital and enlightened governmental policy. Ireland will continue on it path as well. Look for the next wave of design and manufacturing to come from these areas (e.g. Fisher&Paykel, Marc Newson).

posted 10-31-2003 04:58 PM              

In my mind product design will not have a higher profile 10 or 100 years from now, it will still be seen as a necessarily low-cost service by most of North-American businesses that still view it as essentially inexpensive product cosmetics and a minor marketing exercise, but one with a high yield. Designers may be frustrated the world over that it is the sellers of their ideas that make the dough, but it's only a question of supply and demand. Right now unemployed or under-employed creative designers are legion, so why should ID's profile rise any higher in the foreseeable future with schools manufacturing graduates way faster than industry can absorb them (?)

National pride everywhere will keep the most talented employed locally, but outsourcing design and engineering services to less expensive markets (Asia & Eastern Europe) is already increasing at an alarming rate and there's no reason to believe it will stop anytime soon. Business is interested in sales, not where its designers are, not to mention that R&D to a certain extent geographically follows manufacturing for obvious reasons. Asia and Eastern Europe have high-caliber talents and top-rate schools.

So far, industrial design hasn't managed, in my view, to secure itself an influential position in business except for some isolated happy cases, but they are far from the norm. Design is still seen as something almost anyone can tackle without specific training or skills. And a visually iliterate buying public that can't distinguish between copycat junk and intelligent design won't help matters.

Building contractors and land promoters managed to successfully boot out architects from 99% of residential construction today, witness the awful, wasteful, substandard housing built in most of North-America since WWII. Product design is likely to suffer the same fate at the hands of manufacturers concerned strictly with short-term gains.

There may be more ID jobs today than 10 years ago, but the quality of these individual jobs has not increased and likely will not in the next 10 years. This profession lacks its champions, its heroes and true believers. The ones made up by the media nowadays are paper sensations no one will ever remember once they are gone, and for good reason.

posted 11-01-2003 10:43 AM              

I come across the average Joe Schmoe style of design everyday, in fact I was with a new client recently talking with a prospective contract manufacturer in regards to producing the clients current product line.

The client had just finished explaining what our role was in regards to new design directions and the VP of the CM said "oh our engineers could help you out with new design directions as well if you're interested", like I wasn't standing there!

These "engineers" specialise in taking napkin design into pure sheetmetal monoliths. You know the type, this is what mainstream Id is up against everyday. Sometimes you see it and have time to prevent further damage, but mostly it isn't seen and we generally clean up the debris behind them. Our typical time with clients is 50% design 50% client education.

For passionate IDers this can be immensely frustrating, hence our change to our own product development. The key is finding a business/marketing partner that can integrate so as the designer does not have to become the businessperson as well.

The only way I see mainstream ID growing is through education, education of industry and education of new graduates.

Good Luck!

posted 11-01-2003 11:08 AM              

I don't feel any country will have the monopoly on design.

quote:

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Originally posted by Ozymandias:
....I can see a future within 10 years that the manufacturing in Asia has grown so efficient at what it does (raw material sourcing, preparation, part making, assembly, packaging, storage and shipping) that they will hire the designers, or the brands, directly, to design and market their goods to specific markets, retailers and consumers. Much as it is now, but the manufacturers will foot the bills and own a stake or share of the brand, or company, or product. Rather than being paid on a per piece, FOB, or quantity price basis as they are now. In short, Factories will have a greater involvement in the product development process from the beginning, as a client to the designer, rather than being a vendor who supplies a service to the designer. Or even possibly as a patron to the designer, with a stake in the outcome......

so in other words Western ID will become a symbiote to Eastern Manufacturing.....

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posted 11-01-2003 12:50 PM              

Superior design is a competitive advantage, but it isn't the only game in town. Which would you rather be, Apple or Dell? You're either interested in "making" products, or "selling" products.

I think the best thing designers can do is influence those that are in the "selling products" arena to the best of their ability. Making a mass-produced product incrementally more usable is more profound than making a museum piece that affects the few who are already willing to pay a premium for good design.

posted 11-04-2003 09:22 AM              

Incremental change is what porduct design in the real world is all about. For those who wish to design world changing products, good luck trying to find someone or some company to support your elitist agenda. This can be done, but only by a very few. (witness the discouragingly large number of consultancies that have recently gone under).

Design is much like other professions (engineer, geologist, architect, etc) a few stars that make a splash, but a vast majority that quietly go about thier craft, and incrementally improve the human condition. From experience i've found that
evolutionary change is far more satisfying than revolutionary, and usually engenders far more permanent change.

Personally, I think that this arrogant attitude of "I'm going to change the world, and I'm going to show you how to do it using YOUR money" on the part of too many designers, carries much of the blame as to why our profession is perceived as less than proffessional. We come off looking too much like prima donna idiots.

posted 11-05-2003 05:31 PM              

This is not to say designers have a monopoly on change and innovation, or even should, but the very core of "designing" is creating with the purpose of enhancing someone's life, even if only in a minute aspect. It is NOT the core of, say, engineering, but if you graduated from any half-decent university-level ID program, chances are they checked you over for above-average creativity. That means problem-solving runs in your bloodstream.

If large numbers of consultancies have withered and died, it is for the better, it's called natural selection as the vast majority were frivolous me-too operations often abusive towards both their employees and clients, and just there to take advantage of elusive trends and fashions in consumer products, not to mention the mindless consumer splurging of the 80s and early 90s. They offered little different from the shop next door and business reality finally just caught up with them too. No loss there.

Designers with the foresight and courage to see their own ideas into production using their own resources should be encouraged and much commended, as many now great firms have started this way. It is not, as some here cynically interpreted, a matter of elitism, being a prima donna or adding to landfills to satisfy one's ego. Then companies like Dyson (of much copied cyclone vacuum-cleaner fame) or Apple would have never existed to challenge our assumptions about a certain product category. And the list is long.

Visionary designers with business acumen make for great entrepreneurs and are a rare species indeed. Those I've met so far weren't in it for money or an ego trip - their motivation is the beauty of the challenge itself in all its aspects, not just the product.

It's hard for those blase about their future career prospects to accept that others keep pushing themselves higher and higher. And it's even worse for the lifelong 9-to-5ers to see others actually succeed in their businesses, design or other. Running a business, though, is not for everyone, it does take some ego and a thick skin ("arrogance", you know) to convince others to even give you a chance.

If everyone in the world thought like "oldguy" here chances are good we'd still be living in caves, wearing fashionable animal skins and hunting our dinners with spears, our "evolutionary" change would be that slow. No revolutions for us, please, we're only human.

For product designers disatisfied with the pace or narrow vision of their employers, selling one's own products (even if in small volumes or niche markets) is tremendously rewarding and indeed a chance to see how big business is so out of tune with the buying public most of the time. But most of the satisfaction comes from filling another human's unique need. It's rare an average design job will give you such opportunity in a lifetime.

posted 11-06-2003 03:21 PM              

I would say that the reason Apple did not become the technology of overwhelming choice is due to missed opportunities in marketing and an inability to deliver product at key points in the company's history. Look at the blunders at TI that gave the founders of Compaq the ability to steal their lunch in the mid 80s. If anything, the design of the Mac interface and the out of the ordinary box styling have kept that company afloat. Admit it you want the IPod.

Does anyone really believe that Dell's boxes are technically better than Apple's? They're about the same. The real story is the Microsoft advantage at the software level. Cheap OS that barely runs but that everybody and his pet monkey knows because it is, as I mentioned, cheap.

If I could get an NT box that ran the Apple OS and that didn't look like a sheet metal box with a lexan front at $1200.00 I'd be in heaven. For now I have both the NT and the G4.

I just like the Mac better.

posted 11-06-2003 03:54 PM              

People here know Rashid, not Dyson--that's my fundamental complaint.

to "I'd rather be Apple": Yes, I have an iPod. Apple is great. But you missed my point: Dell sells a hell of a lot more than Apple. Why do people make products? To SELL THEM. That is exactly the reason that Apple announced that "Hell Froze Over" and released iTunes and iPod for Windows--at the end of the day, their stockholders demand a return.

posted 11-06-2003 04:55 PM              

Hey, it's happening with manufacturing and information technology. Why should ID be any different?

posted 11-06-2003 05:35 PM              

Hey, pushing the envelope is something we ALL like to do, you just got to be able to bring it back to business reality so that your employer can SELL something, and give you a paycheck. Guess I've seen too many designers who are oblivious to that last part.

As to "evolution vs revolution', If you can find a place that supports revolutionary change, great. Most business's can't afford that, and that's my point. Designers up the ying yang who don't even know what a business model is, let alone how to support one. That's why this profession is languishing as a whole. We're not seen as a liability, but too often we're not seen as an asset either!!

When we make ourselves an indispensible asset to our clients (like engineers and geologists, then we will have professional respect and honors thrust upon us.

posted 11-13-2003 02:01 PM              

My take on this is that everything starts with education, and NOT that of the public as some designers think, but that of designers themselves. ID programs should attempt to weed out early on the types interested chiefly in designing for themselves before designing for others, the selfish, self-important or unsociable loners with too much of a personal agenda. ID is not for artists with an atitude, it shouldn't be the self-congratulating club it has become under the facade of all these pompous, tribal and largely irrelevant "professional" associations and "special gatherings" everywhere. We're not fashion designers for goodness' sake.

At best, the elitism espoused by the perpetually dressed-in-black, self-styled among us with that "let-me-show-you" demeanor should remain a marginal side of the profession, relevant to the absurdly rich and vain with time on their hands to cater to such fluff.

posted 11-13-2003 02:46 PM              

Schools could do a better job of instructing thier students how to pull thier wonderfull designs back to manufacturing reality. I think you would see a lot of the designs of recent graduates looking quite different. It is a difficult thing to pull the bluesky design back to manufacturability and retain the design intent. The mark of a truly GOOD designer!

Unfortunately, the premier professional organization for industrial design tends to promote design for designers at the expense of design for the client and the marketplace. This creates a difficult situation for newbie designers. Do you design to please your peers (IDSA Awards) or do you design to please your client. Now these do not have to be mutually exclusive by any means. Many great examples of this. But too often it is, and that is why so many consultancies have died. Too much design to win awards, than to win sales for thier clients.

The company I curently work for has in the past used the services of no less than Ziba's Boston office. They produced not only an unmanufacturable design, but a design that took into account none of the acoustical physics of our products. Thier answer was that they were more concerned with making it look good than making it functional. Needless to say we have never worked with thwm again.

Most companies actually pay far more attention to the Bronze and silver IDEA awards (if they pay any attention at all), than they do to the gold. Bronze and silver still push the envelope, but are far more marketable. Gold is for the elite, for back slapping and ego boosting.

If this profession continues to push design for designers above other considerations, it will not move of the plateau on which it now rests. The profession needs professionalism, not self aggrandizing portfolio padding. Thier are many professionals out there, but you have to really look for them.

posted 11-14-2003 05:42 PM              

the work or a lot of designers right now might look great but try going mainstream with it and see how fast its moved to the clearance end-cap of your local target store.

A return to professionalism is definatly what we all need. We need to make ourselves true assets to the business world so more companies will take industrial design seriously.

There are a lot of companies out there who could be potential clients and don't even know what industrial design is. If industrial design is going to move anywhere we need to get more business saavy from day one of design school and make companies realize how design can really add value to their products and not just take a huge block out of their budgets.

posted 11-16-2003 09:45 PM              

We have been designing for a client for 3 years - maybe close to 15 projects... now - they don't believe they should pay us for our design work (only on a royalty basis if they release the product) - because other companies are much cheaper. They forget that they have gone from a low end technology supplier to an award winning leader in the short time we have worked with them. We give them advice, and their total company image is our design work - to change design houses would be like rebranding!

Getting back to the point - the client really needs to understand our value. This is one profession where firms are constantly undercutting each other to get the job. Cutting prices always ends in less quality, less value and importance placed on the project...

I think the design industry (whether global or national) needs some sort of unity - where firms meet on a regular basis to discuss and improve services, fee structures, systems, etc. If all firms agree on conditions and fee structures - clients won't be getting bargain prices resulting in bad quality work. I am not sure what the IDSA contributes to this - or even if it is a problem in the US... but in the Asia Pacific region, I am not familiar with any organisations set-up to deal with this.

posted 11-17-2003 09:36 AM              

One of the main reasons why design isn't viewed as an asset by some business professionals is because they don't even know what industrial design is. Most don't know how it could aid their business, or how it would even fit into their organization's structure.

The only way to change this is by creating design links at an early stage of a business professionals training. I believe design should be a present factor in most BA or Marketing programs, an extension or plug-in to a course, just like financing and economics are in most BA programs. This would give upcoming BA professionals the understanding of how to use another important business tool within a company.

The second main fault to why design is viewed as a liability and not an asset falls to the designer. Most designers do not have a formal background in business, therefore they lack the knowledge to market themselves successfully within the business world.

The ones that end up marketing themselves successfully sometimes shot themselves in the foot, by supplying expensive design services, followed by expensive to produce or even unmanufacturable ideas that are not suited to there clients vision or goals. Badly produced information that will be handed of to other departments (like engineering) to figure out, and work out the bugs; is also another designer down fall.

It's no wonder design is dwindling, business persons ignorant to design are hiring design services without knowing what they are purchasing, if the end result turns out bad, for what ever the reason may be. Then more than likely they will point the finger at the professional service of ID, which is over priced, under qualified, unrealistic, and in some cases unprofessional.

That is why ID is not an asset, but a necessary liability.

To answer the question of where ID is headed? ID is headed to the supplier that can offer a professional service, with realistic business vision, at a cost effective value. This is where ID is headed, and it has nothing to do with local.

posted 11-23-2003 02:16 PM              

With the modern day advancements in internet communications? . . . not necessary. But you could be the one to start exploiting that part of the world before they do."

There are lot reasons why companies chose Asia instead of countries in Africa or other continents. Labor cost is not the only thing, local market potential, supply of skilled workers (white collar and blue collar) and established industrial suppliers...

Do you know China is Nokia's No.1 market in the world? 0.2 billion cell phones have been sold there.

posted 11-23-2003 11:59 PM              

quote:

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Originally posted by haha:
Diana, my friend's ID firm in China grew from a one man show to a 52 people firm. Same thing happened with his friends' firm. In 5 yrs. I am from there.

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posted 11-24-2003 06:07 AM              

quote:

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Originally posted by haha:
Diana, my friend's ID firm in China grew from a one man show to a 52 people firm. Same thing happened with his friends' firm. In 5 yrs. I am from there.

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posted 11-24-2003 01:23 PM              

This is one of the most interesting threads in a while, and nobody has felt the urge to say something stupid just to cause a ruckis (is that how you spell ruckis?)

Anyway, glad to see we can all act like adults.

CG, I think you are on the money with your 10 year outlook!

posted 11-25-2003 01:29 AM              

quote:

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Originally posted by Krush:
Yeah - and I am working here... we are growing from a 3 man show last year... now a 15 person show... too much work as it is. This place is literally booming

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posted 11-25-2003 04:00 AM              

quote:

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Originally posted by diana:
where is your firm

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